Abstract: Based on the panel data of 284 prefecturelevel cities in China from 2006 to 2021， a spatial econometric model is used to explore the impact of industrial structure upgrading on urban scale. The results show that industrial structure upgrading can inhibit urban expansion， and after replacing the spatial weight matrix， replacing the explanatory variables and shrinking tails， the results are still significant， and the direct effect of industrial structure upgrading is significantly negative in the SAR and SDM models; the heterogeneity test shows that industrial structure upgrading significantly promotes the scale expansion of the neighbouring areas of megacities but has no significant effect on their own city scale; industrial structure upgrading inhibits the scale expansion of megacities more significantly， and industrial structure upgrading inhibits the scale expansion of megacities more significantly. The heterogeneity test shows that industrial structure upgrading will significantly promote the expansion of the neighbourhood of megacities， but has no significant effect on its own city scale， the inhibiting effect of industrial structure upgrading on the expansion of megacities is more obvious， while the direct effect on the expansion of the scale of megacities and the following cities is weak and significant. The mechanism test shows that the increase of consumption level can inhibit the expansion of urban scale， and industrial structure upgrading affects urban scale through consumption level， and the effect of industrial structure upgrading on urban scale under the perspective of consumption level is an inverted “U” shape. The impact of industrial structure upgrading on city size from the perspective of consumption level shows an inverted “U” shaped nonlinear relationship. The conclusion of the study provides new perspectives and new ideas for the synergistic development of industrial structure upgrading and city scale.

Key words: industrial structure upgrading; city scale; consumption level; spatial econometric model

摘要： 基于2006—2021年中国284个地级市面板数据，运用空间计量模型，探究产业结构升级对城市规模的影响。产业结构升级能够抑制城市扩张，经过更换空间权重矩阵、更换被解释变量和缩尾处理等稳健性检验，其结果依旧显著，在SAR与SDM模型下，产业结构升级的直接效应显著为负。异质性检验表明，产业结构升级会显著推动超大城市邻近地区规模扩张，但对自身城市规模则无明显影响，产业结构升级对特大城市规模扩张的抑制作用更为明显，而对大城市及以下城市规模扩张的直接效应表现为弱显著，2006—2012年产业结构升级对城市规模扩张起到显著的抑制作用，其直接效应和间接效应均显著为负，而2013—2021年仅有间接效应表现为负向影响。机制检验表明消费水平提高能够抑制城市规模扩张，产业结构升级则通过消费水平影响城市规模，消费水平视角下产业结构升级对城市规模的影响表现为倒U型的非线性关系。研究结论为产业结构升级与城市规模协同发展提供了新视角和新思路。

关键词: 产业结构升级；城市规模；消费水平；空间计量模型