Abstract: Basically, the characteristics of growth of motorized vehicles within central Chongqing are analyzed by studying the history data. The growth patterns and the relevant factors of some other metropolitans in and out of China are summarized as a further research. It can be concluded that the main factor influencing the growth of motorized vehicles is GDP per capita or the average family income, and as the GDP per capita (or the average family income) increases, the growth of motorized vehicle ownership per thousand population increases in a manner as an “S” curve. Based on this result, the motorized vehicle ownership within central Chongqing can be predicted by using the method of “S” curve. Finally, the related policy is put forward.

Key words: socioeconomic factors, urban traffic, motorized vehicle, forecast

摘要： 分析重庆市主城区机动车发展的现状特征，研究国内外各大城市机动车发展的规律及其影响因素。研究发现，影响机动车发展的关键因素是人均GDP或平均家庭收入，国内外各大城市的千人汽车拥有量随着人均GDP或平均家庭收入的增长符合S曲线增长规律。在此基础上，采用S曲线法进行重庆市主城区机动车拥有量预测研究，并提出相关政策建议。

关键词: 社会经济因素, 城市交通, 机动车, 预测