Abstract: Taking city subway project, the theory of toughness subway operation system is introduced. Through literature research method, with accident causes around the subway in China over the years, the main factors influencing the toughness subway operation system are analyzed. Evaluation index system of subway operation toughness is constructed, using Shapley value method to determine index weight at all levels in the index system, combined with the theory of extension cloud. The metro operation system toughness evaluation model is constructed to evaluate the metro operation system toughness, which is taken as the theoretical basis for the safety management of the metro operation system, so as to improve the system toughness and ensure the safe and orderly development of the normal operation.

Key words: subway operation system, toughness evaluation, Shapley value method, extension of cloud

摘要： 以某市地铁项目为例，将韧性理论引入地铁运营系统，通过文献研究法，结合历年来我国各地发生地铁运营事故的成因，分析影响地铁运营系统韧性的主要因素，归纳构建地铁运营韧性评价指标体系。利用Shapley值法确定指标体系中各级指标的权重，结合可拓云理论构建地铁运营系统韧性评价模型，评定地铁运营系统韧性情况，并作为地铁运营系统安全管理的理论依据，从而提高地铁的系统韧性，确保正常运营安全有序开展。

关键词: 地铁运营系统, 韧性评价, Shapley值法, 可拓云