Abstract: Based on the analysis of a series of data in the Yangtze River eonomic belt from 2006 to 2020， this paper uses Kaya model and the LMDI decomposition model to quantitatively analyze the energy carbon emission driving factors in the manufacturing industry of the Yangtze River economic belt. The results indicate that during the inspection period， the overall carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry in the Yangtze River economic belt showed a tortuous upward trend； there is a significant difference in carbon emissions from the manufacturing industry among 11 provinces and cities. The number of provinces and cities in low value and lower value areas shows a downward trend， while the number of provinces and cities in high value and high value areas shows an upward trend. Through the decomposition of driving factors， this paper finds that the economy of the manufacturing industry is the main driving factor for the increase of carbon emissions， and energy carbon density and the size of labor force play an important role in promoting the increase of it. And the main drive for carbon emission reduction is manufacturing energy consumption intensity. In response to the above research results， this paper puts forward some suggestions to the enterprises in manufacturing industry.

Key words: manufacturing carbon emissions； the Yangtze River economic belt； spatialtemporal evolution； driving factors

摘要： 在考察2006—2020年长江经济带制造业碳排放时空演变特征的基础上，运用Kaya模型和LMDI分解方法，定量分析长江经济带制造业碳排放驱动因素的影响。考察期间，长江经济带制造业碳排放量总体呈现曲折上升趋势；11个省（市）制造业碳排放量差异较大，处于低值区、较低值区的省（市）数量呈现下降趋势，处于较高值区、高值区的省（市）数量呈现上升趋势；驱动因素分解发现制造业经济水平是碳排放增加的主要驱动因素，能源碳密度因素和劳动力规模因素对碳排放增加起到一定的促进作用，而制造业能耗强度因素是碳减排的主要驱动因素。基于此，提出碳减排建议。

关键词: 制造业碳排放；长江经济带；时空演变；驱动因素