Abstract: Farmers grain storage for national food security plays an important role, but in recent years the number of farmers grain storage has been diminishing, which threatens grain security of China. So there is necessity to study the specific factors of farmer storage. The statistics is analyzed from the research of questionnaires from 14 major cities and a county of the central region in Jiangsu province. It was found that the number of farmers grain storage showed a decreasing trend now and also in the future. By constructing logistic model, it was found that the number of farmers, average years of education of agricultural labor force, per capita grain consumption, distance from the nearest place of grain purchase, storage time and ways of grain storage which is the core variable are all factors that affect farmer storage will.

Key words: farmer storage, Logistic model, ways of grain storage

摘要： 农户粮食储备对国家粮食安全有着重要作用。近年来农户储粮数量不断递减，对我国粮食安全保障产生威胁，研究农户储粮的具体影响因素存在必要性。本文通过问卷调查对江苏省中部地区14个主要县市的农户进行统计分析，发现农户储粮数量呈递减趋势，并且预期未来仍有减少。通过构建Logistic模型，发现务农人数、农业劳动力平均受教育年限、人均粮食年消费量、距离最近的粮食购买点的距离、储备时间以及作为核心变量的储备方式均为农户储粮意愿的影响因素。

关键词: 农户储粮, Logistic模型, 储粮方式