Abstract: Chinese government brought up the proposition to enhance the construction of the inner channel of drainage area of the Yangtze River in 2013. As the center of the “golden channel”,Chongqing grasps the chance of the new strategic development of “one belt one road”, which goes along the east of the economic zone of the Yangtze River and forward to the west of the silk road. The government always focuses on how to boost the raise of value of foreign trade.The level of openness is analyzed and the potential of the foreign trade in Chongqing is predicted using the gray model, with the total value of foreign trade and the index of the region GDP and other relative statistics in recent years. Three proposes are given: improve the delivery system, import foreign resources by taking the chance of the construction of Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe railway and promote industry by setting the free trade zone. New thoughts to enhance the international cooperation and opening are given.

Key words: one belt one road, foreign trade, gray system model, advice of development

摘要： 2013年国家提出加强长江流域内河航道建设构想。重庆作为黄金水道的中心，抓住沿长江经济带向东、沿丝绸之路经济带向西的“一带一路”区域发展新战略构想的契机，促进重庆对外贸易额增长是政府一直关注的重点问题。本文通过搜集近年来重庆对外贸易总额与地区GDP指数等相关数据，利用灰色模型，分析目前重庆对外开放的程度并预测重庆未来的外贸潜力， 提出完善物流系统、以“渝新欧”建设为契机积极引进外部资源、建立自由贸易园区促进产业升级三大建议，为加强重庆区际合作、国际开放提供了发展新思路。

关键词: 一带一路, 对外贸易, 灰色系统模型, 发展建议