Abstract: China has proposed in its “National Independent Contribution” that carbon dioxide emissions will peak around 2030 and strive to be realized as soon as possible. Based on the energy carbon emissions of Sichuans industrial sector from 2005 to 2015, a regression model is used to analyze in detail the relevant links between selected indicators and the existence of industrial carbon emissions.The factors affecting Sichuans industrial carbon emissions are studied and then the gray prediction software is used. The industrial carbon emissions of Sichuan Province for the next five years are estimated, and measures to reduce industrial carbon emissions in Sichuan Province in terms of environmental regulation, industrial transformation, energy structure, energy efficiency, and policies are proposed.

Key words: industrial carbon emission, Sichuan province, influencing factor, gray prediction model

摘要： 中国在“国家自主贡献”中提出将于2030年左右使二氧化碳排放达到峰值并争取尽早实现。以四川省工业行业2005—2015年能源碳排放量为基础，运用回归模型，详细分析选定指标与工业碳排放的相关联系，研究四川省工业碳排放的影响因素，利用灰色预测软件预估四川省此后5年的工业碳排放量，从环境调控、产业转型、能源结构、能源效率和政策五个方面提出四川省降低工业碳排放的对策。

关键词: 工业碳排放, 四川省, 影响因素, 灰色预测