Abstract: As the double carbon goal is proposed, the logistics industry is facing the challenges of the times of green, low-carbon environmental protection, and the development of the digital economy, as an emerging economic form, provides good support for the green and low-carbon development of the logistics industry, and the digital economy has become an important driving force for carbon emission reduction in the logistics industry. Based on the provincial data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, a benchmark regression model and a moderating effect model are first established to analyze the direct and indirect effects of the digital economy on carbon emissions in the logistics industry. Then, a PVAR model of digital economy, innovation efficiency and carbon emissions in the logistics industry is constructed, and the dynamic impact relationship between the three is deeply explored. Then, the specific role of the digital economy on carbon emissions in the logistics industry is analyzed from different dimensions. The main research conclusions are as follows: the digital economy has an inverted U-shaped impact relationship of first promoting and then suppressing carbon emissions in the logistics industry; from the PVAR model regression results, the improvement of the digital economy level can significantly promote the improvement of innovation efficiency, and the improvement of innovation efficiency will significantly promote the carbon emission reduction of the logistics industry, but the development of the digital economy will increase the carbon emissions of the logistics industry, in addition, the digital economy, innovation efficiency and the carbon emissions of the logistics industry have self-promoting effects; the mechanism of the impact of the digital economy on the carbon emissions of the logistics industry is the regulating effect, and under the high level of logistics industry agglomeration, the development of the digital economy will significantly inhibit the carbon emissions of the logistics industry, and vice versa, it will increase the carbon emissions of the logistics industry; by decomposing the role of the digital economy, it is found that digital infrastructure construction and industrial digitalization can significantly promote carbon emission reduction in the logistics industry, while digital industrialization has not been significantly verified in this study; there is obvious regional heterogeneity in the impact of the digital economy on carbon emission reduction in the logistics industry, and the role of the digital economy in promoting carbon emission reduction in the logistics industry is more significant in the eastern region, followed by the western region, while the inhibitory effect in the central region is not obvious.

Key words: digital economy; logistics industry; carbon reduction; innovation efficiency; industrial agglomeration

摘要： 中国“双碳”目标下，物流业面临低碳转型挑战，数字经济作为一种新兴的经济形态，是物流业碳减排的重要驱动力。基于中国30个省份2011—2020年省域数据，建立基准回归模型和调节效应模型，分析数字经济影响物流业碳排放的直接和间接效应；构建数字经济、创新效率与物流业碳排放的面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型，探讨三者的动态影响关系；从不同维度分析数字经济对物流业碳排放影响的具体作用。研究发现：数字经济对物流业碳排放有着先促进后抑制的倒U型影响；从PVAR模型回归结果看，数字经济水平的提升能显著提高创新效率，而创新效率的提升有利于物流业的碳减排，此外，数字经济、创新效率与物流业碳排放均表现出自我促进作用；高物流业产业集聚水平下，数字经济的发展显著抑制物流业的碳排放量，反之增加物流业的碳排放量；通过对数字经济的作用分解，发现数字基础设施建设和产业数字化显著促进物流业的碳减排，而数字产业化未得到显著验证；数字经济对物流业碳减排的影响存在明显的区域异质性，东部地区数字经济对物流业碳减排的促进作用更显著，西部地区次之，中部地区的抑制作用不明显。

关键词: 数字经济；物流业；碳减排；创新效率；产业集聚