Abstract: The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is introduced, based on the theory of supplyside structure reform and the development of road and waterway transportation in Henan province, including 10 control variables,10 random variables and a state variable. A model group consisting of 10 supplyside model and demandside model of transportation in Henan province and 10 random variable models were established, and the expected utility function and Lagrange function were constructed, and Bayesian method and econometric methods to estimate parameters were used. Finally, the development objective of the main state variables and control variables of transportation system in Henan province by 2025 are predicted.

Key words: transportation, supplyside structural reform, DSGE model, forecast

摘要： 基于供给侧结构改革理论和河南省交通运输的发展状况，引入动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型，其中涉及10个随机变量、10个控制变量和1个状态变量。建立由10个交通运输供给侧模型与需求侧模型组成的模型组和10个随机变量模型，并构建预期效用函数和拉格朗日函数，组成河南省交通运输供给侧结构改革的DSGE模型体系。通过贝叶斯方法和计量经济学方法等进行参数估计，并预测河南省2025年交通运输体系主要变量的发展目标。

关键词: 交通运输, 供给侧结构改革, DSGE模型, 预测