Abstract: In the short term， the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to soaring prices of crude oil， natural gas and food around the world and disrupt the rhythm of global trade. On the basis of studying the current situation of RussiaUkraine conflict and the trade situation between the two countries and China， based on WSR methodology， this paper analyzes the impact of RussiaUkraine conflict on Chinas shipping industry， including the increase of import and export trade costs， the forced change of transport routes， the increase of freight prices due to the shortage of transport capacity， the threat to transport security and the increase of the potential of SinoRussian shipbuilding cooperation. Based on the above influences， corresponding suggestions and countermeasures are put forward for Chinas shipping industry in the face of local wars， so as to advance Chinas layout in the uncertain international situation in the future and enhance its ability to avoid risks.

Key words: RussiaUkraine conflict, WSR methodology, shipping industry, trade

摘要： 俄乌冲突升级，短期内导致全世界原油、天然气和粮食价格飙升，打乱了全球贸易节奏。在研究俄乌冲突现状和两国与我国贸易情况的基础上，基于WSR方法论，分析俄乌冲突对我国航运业的影响，包括进出口贸易成本上升、运输航线被迫改变、运力紧缺运价上涨、运输安全遭到威胁和增大中俄造船领域合作潜力。基于以上影响，为我国航运业面对局部战争提出相应的建议与对策，在未来不确定的国际局势下提前布局，增强避险能力。

关键词: 俄乌冲突, WSR方法论, 航运业, 贸易