关键词: 入境旅游, 旅游需求, 影响因素, 误差修正模型

Abstract: The purpose of this study was to analyze the Beijing inbound tourism demand and long or short effects of influence factors by using Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Model. The results showed that in the Cointegrating equation, there is a longterm equilibrium and stable relationship between Beijing inbound tourism demand and international airlines and exchange rates, but GDP and CPI are not included. In the error correction equation, a variety of influence factors with lag time will lead to changes in inbound tourism demand, but the shortterm volatility will return to a longterm stable relationship quickly. The empirical evidence strongly supports the negative impact of the SARS in 2003, the global financial crisis from 2008 and the worsening haze factors from 2012 on the inbound tourism demand in Beijing. At the same time, the study showed that the inbound tourism demand in Beijing is only affected by seasonal factors in the first quarter, and the impact of other quarters is not significant.

Key words: inbound tourism, tourism demand, influence factor, ECM