Abstract: Through the analysis of factors which have a significant effect on vessels economic viability, RFR (Required Freight Rate) was selected as the evaluation indicator. Because RFR has the least error compared with other economic viability indicators. Furthermore, the verification oil prices ARCH effect was conducted. Then a method to verify vessels economic viability during drastic oil price fluctuation was proposed. The feasibility of applying vessels economic viability method was then validated against the case of the Vessel Ocean Universe, indicating that the proposed method can better fulfill the requirements of vessels economic viability under drastic oil price fluctuation.

Key words: vessels economic viability, drastic oil price fluctuation, ARCH model

摘要： 通过分析影响船舶经济性的因素，选取在油价剧烈波动下误差最小的必要运费率RFR为评价指标，并运用ARCH模型对国际油价进行波动性检验，发现油价呈现ARCH效应，提出了在油价剧烈波动下论证船舶经济性的方法。同时，应用油价剧烈波动下船舶经济性评价的案例，验证了其优越性。结果表明，该方法能够更好地满足油价剧烈波动下船舶经济性验证的要求。

关键词: 船舶经济性, 油价剧烈波动, ARCH模型