Abstract: A PanelVAR model, which can take all variable as endogenous as well as the impulse function and variance decomposition, is applied to empirically study the relations between FDI and employment of manufacturing and producer services in Fujian province. The results show that there are complicated interaction paths for the triple variable. FDI and manufacturing employment will be affected more by other variables. And producer service employment is in a more serious seal state. In the long run, the change of FDI is mostly influenced by the employment of manufacturing and producer services.

Key words: producer service, manufacturing, employment, FDI, PanelVAR

摘要： 本文运用允许将所有考察变量视为内生的Panel-VAR（面板向量自回归）模型进行实证分析，并以基于PVAR模型的脉冲响应函数分析及方差分解方法，来考察福建省FDI、生产性服务业就业和制造业就业之间的相互动态冲击反应。研究发现，三者之间存在较为复杂的互动影响路径，其中FDI与制造业就业更多受到其他变量的影响，在这个三元内生系统中，生产性服务业处于更为封闭的状态。长期来看，FDI的变化主要受制造业及生产性服务业就业的影响。

关键词: 生产性服务业, 制造业, 就业, FDI, PanelVAR