油价剧烈波动下船舶经济性论证方法研究

重庆交通大学学报（社会科学版） ›› 2014, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (5): 25-30.

油价剧烈波动下船舶经济性论证方法研究

陈飞儿，戴磊

上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室，上海 200240

收稿日期:2014-05-28 出版日期:2014-10-31 发布日期:2016-04-06
作者简介:陈飞儿（1981-），女，上海人，上海交通大学船舶海洋与建筑工程学院讲师，工学博士，研究方向：交通与发展。
基金资助:
2012年度教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“保障航线安全的外交问题研究”（12YJCGJW001）

Study on Vessels Economic Viability Verification Method under Drastic Fluctuation of Crude Oil Price

CHEN Feier, DAI Lei

(State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

Received:2014-05-28 Online:2014-10-31 Published:2016-04-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过分析影响船舶经济性的因素，选取在油价剧烈波动下误差最小的必要运费率RFR为评价指标，并运用ARCH模型对国际油价进行波动性检验，发现油价呈现ARCH效应，提出了在油价剧烈波动下论证船舶经济性的方法。同时，应用油价剧烈波动下船舶经济性评价的案例，验证了其优越性。结果表明，该方法能够更好地满足油价剧烈波动下船舶经济性验证的要求。

关键词: 船舶经济性, 油价剧烈波动, ARCH模型

Abstract: Through the analysis of factors which have a significant effect on vessels economic viability, RFR (Required Freight Rate) was selected as the evaluation indicator. Because RFR has the least error compared with other economic viability indicators. Furthermore, the verification oil prices ARCH effect was conducted. Then a method to verify vessels economic viability during drastic oil price fluctuation was proposed. The feasibility of applying vessels economic viability method was then validated against the case of the Vessel Ocean Universe, indicating that the proposed method can better fulfill the requirements of vessels economic viability under drastic oil price fluctuation.

Key words: vessels economic viability, drastic oil price fluctuation, ARCH model

陈飞儿，戴磊. 油价剧烈波动下船舶经济性论证方法研究[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（社会科学版）, 2014, 14(5): 25-30.

CHEN Feier, DAI Lei. Study on Vessels Economic Viability Verification Method under Drastic Fluctuation of Crude Oil Price[J]. , 2014, 14(5): 25-30.

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