经济驱动下的航运需求预测

重庆交通大学学报（社会科学版） ›› 2019, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (4): 51-57.

经济驱动下的航运需求预测

李文杰，邹文康，万宇，杨胜发，杨威

重庆交通大学，重庆 400074

收稿日期:2018-08-29 修回日期:2018-09-25 出版日期:2019-07-20 发布日期:2019-07-04
作者简介:李文杰（1984—），男，重庆交通大学河海学院教授，博士，研究方向：航运工程规划理论与治理方法。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划课题“多目标协同下长江黄金航道承载力及提升潜力”（2016YFC0402103）；重庆市教委科技项目“航运需求预测大数据决策模型构建及其应用”（KJ1705146）

Research on Forecasting of Shipping Demand Under Economic Drive

LI Wenjie, ZOU Wenkang, WAN Yu, YANG Shengfa, YANG Wei

(Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China)

Received:2018-08-29 Revised:2018-09-25 Online:2019-07-20 Published:2019-07-04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 航运是经济发展的重要载体，经济发展驱动的航运需求预测研究是航运发展战略的重要支撑。采用实测资料分析和数学模型的研究手段，建立了两种航运需求预测模型，即贸易引力模型和投入产出模型。基于云南省的航运经济数据对两种模型进行验证，结果表明两种模拟方法均可行，可采用二者预测结果的平均值作为最终预测结果。云南省在2030年的国内航运需求可达1040万吨、国际航运需求将近200万吨，迫切需要提升云南省的综合航运能力，周边国家或地区的航运能力亦需同步提升。

关键词: 经济驱动, 航运需求预测, 引力模型, 投入产出模型, 云南省

Abstract: Shipping is an important carrier of economic development. The research on shipping demand forecast driven by economic development is an important support for shipping development strategy. By using the measured data analysis and mathematical model research methods, two kinds of shipping demand forecasting models, the trade gravity model and the inputoutput model, are presented. Based on the shipping economic data of Yunnan Province, the results show that both simulation methods can be used, and the average of the two prediction results can be used as the final prediction result. In 2030, the domestic shipping demand of Yunnan Province will reach 10.4 million tons and the international shipping demand will be nearly 2 million tons. It is urgent to upgrade the comprehensive shipping capacity of Yunnan province, and the shipping capacity of neighboring countries or regions needs to be upgraded simultaneously.

Key words: economic drive, shipping demand forecast, gravity model, inputoutput model, Yunnan

李文杰，邹文康，万宇，杨胜发，杨威. 经济驱动下的航运需求预测[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（社会科学版）, 2019, 19(4): 51-57.

LI Wenjie, ZOU Wenkang, WAN Yu, YANG Shengfa, YANG Wei. Research on Forecasting of Shipping Demand Under Economic Drive[J]. , 2019, 19(4): 51-57.

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