关键词: 产业结构升级；城市规模；消费水平；空间计量模型

Abstract: Based on the panel data of 284 prefecturelevel cities in China from 2006 to 2021， a spatial econometric model is used to explore the impact of industrial structure upgrading on urban scale. The results show that industrial structure upgrading can inhibit urban expansion， and after replacing the spatial weight matrix， replacing the explanatory variables and shrinking tails， the results are still significant， and the direct effect of industrial structure upgrading is significantly negative in the SAR and SDM models; the heterogeneity test shows that industrial structure upgrading significantly promotes the scale expansion of the neighbouring areas of megacities but has no significant effect on their own city scale; industrial structure upgrading inhibits the scale expansion of megacities more significantly， and industrial structure upgrading inhibits the scale expansion of megacities more significantly. The heterogeneity test shows that industrial structure upgrading will significantly promote the expansion of the neighbourhood of megacities， but has no significant effect on its own city scale， the inhibiting effect of industrial structure upgrading on the expansion of megacities is more obvious， while the direct effect on the expansion of the scale of megacities and the following cities is weak and significant. The mechanism test shows that the increase of consumption level can inhibit the expansion of urban scale， and industrial structure upgrading affects urban scale through consumption level， and the effect of industrial structure upgrading on urban scale under the perspective of consumption level is an inverted “U” shape. The impact of industrial structure upgrading on city size from the perspective of consumption level shows an inverted “U” shaped nonlinear relationship. The conclusion of the study provides new perspectives and new ideas for the synergistic development of industrial structure upgrading and city scale.

Key words: industrial structure upgrading; city scale; consumption level; spatial econometric model